Crypto Outlook: Post-Liquidation Reset | Oct 13–20

Crypto is still shaking off the shock from the October 11 crash. Prices have stabilized, but confidence is thinner and volatility remains elevated. Bitcoin trades around 110,500. Ethereum sits near 4,300. Solana trades around 215. XRP is back below 2.9.

The Crash of the 11th

The October 11 crash was one of the sharpest single-session liquidations in crypto history. What began as a reaction to Trump’s surprise 100% tariff announcement quickly evolved into a structural cascade as over-leveraged positions were forced out in thin weekend liquidity. Bitcoin briefly traded near 101,000, Ethereum touched 3,400, and total liquidations exceeded 19 billion dollars.

Subsequent analysis suggests the macro shock struck a weak point in Binance’s margin-pricing design, where collateral assets such as wBETH (wrapped staked Ether), BNSOL (Binance Solana), and USDe (a stablecoin) were valued using Binance’s own order-book data instead of external oracles, which are independent sources for price data. Whether that flaw was deliberately exploited or simply unfortunate timing remains unclear, but it amplified the sell-off and turned a localized imbalance into a global liquidation wave. The system has since stabilized, meaning trading has returned to normal, funding (the cost to maintain leveraged positions) has normalized, and ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) inflows resumed,  leaving a cleaner, healthier market for the week ahead.

Market backdrop

The macro calendar is light this week, but the market is still digesting, or coping with, the prior week’s volatility. The U.S. government shutdown continues to delay official data releases. ETF flow reports and high-frequency metrics will therefore remain the main reference points for institutional positioning.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Spot

BTC trades near 110,500. The key support zone sits between 108,000 and 109,000. Resistance is 113,000 to 115,000. A clean close above 115,000 would suggest the panic is behind us.

Flows and positioning

Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted small net inflows after the crash, confirming that institutions viewed it as a buying opportunity rather than a structural unwind.

Ethereum (ETH)

Spot

ETH trades near 4,300. The 4,200 area is the first support, followed by 4,000. Resistance sits near 4,500.

Structure

Ethereum’s spot ETFs also printed mild inflows, and on-chain data shows strong accumulation by long-term wallets. ETH’s relative strength against BTC is improving slightly after lagging through September.

Solana (SOL)

Spot

SOL trades near 215. Local support sits at 200 to 210. Resistance is 225 to 235.

Context

Solana was among the most brutally hit during the crash, falling by over 15% intraday. Price has since stabilized, but liquidity remains thin. Solana’s fundamentals and ecosystem metrics (TVL, active addresses) remain steady.

XRP

Spot

XRP trades near 2.85. 2.7 to 2.8 is the first support. A clean move back above 2.95 to 3 would help restore momentum.

Context

The SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) case remains closed, so moves are largely driven by market beta and liquidity conditions. XRP has lagged the bounce, consistent with its lower volatility profile during unwind phases.

Sentiment snapshot

Sentiment has improved modestly since the 11th, but caution dominates. Funding rates normalized over the weekend, and ETF flows turned positive again after small outflows during the panic. On-chain data shows modest inflows to long-term holding wallets, suggesting investors are “buying the dip.”

Volatility is elevated but controlled; BTC's realized volatility has returned to levels seen in mid-July.

Catalyst calendar for the next seven days

• U.S. government shutdown updates — any funding resolution will improve macro visibility.
• Daily spot BTC and ETH ETF flow tables after the close (main gauge for institutional sentiment).
• Ongoing rebalancing by structured products after the September 11 drawdown.
• Watch for any crypto-exchange operational headlines (funding or latency issues) that could affect confidence.

One-week scorecard

Price moves since last Monday (October 6):

Calls versus reality:

• We said the shutdown would make flows and levels the dominant signal. That held true — ETF inflows stabilized prices after the liquidation cascade.
• We expected thin liquidity and potential whipsaws. The crash confirmed that concern.
• We flagged 121,000 as a key BTC support. It broke briefly, triggering the liquidation spiral.

Closing thought

The crash was mechanical, not fundamental. It flushed leverage, cleaned positioning, and leaves crypto in a healthier state. If ETF inflows persist, this pullback may mark the start of the next leg higher rather than the end of the move.