Crypto Outlook: BTC Hits New High | Oct 6–13

Market Backdrop

Bitcoin reached a new high over the weekend and began the week at approximately $124K—Ethereum trades around $4,560. Solana is near $235. XRP is around $2.99. The United States government shutdown is disrupting economic data releases, making macroeconomic signaling noisier than usual.

The shutdown has halted the regular publication of several key reports from agencies such as the BLS and BEA. Private calendars will still be published, but the official series may be delayed or slip until funding is restored. That increases reliance on high-frequency indicators and ETF flow prints. The strength of Bitcoin coincides with heavy spot ETF inflows into the quarter-end and early October. Ether flows flipped positive into the month-end after a weak patch in late September.

Bitcoin

Spot

BTC trades near $123,800. First support sits in the $121K to $122K zone. A clean hold and push back through $125K keeps the breakout narrative intact.

Flows and Positioning

Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted strong net inflows into the month-end window, and sentiment remains constructive. Use the issuer tables after the close for confirmation of the daily tone.

Ethereum

Spot

ETH trades around $4,560. First support sits near $4,500, then $4,480 to $4,400. A move back through $4,600 would reset near-term momentum.

Flows and structure

United States spot Ether ETFs showed sizable net inflows from September 29 to October 3, following notable outflows the prior week. Watch the ETH versus BTC ratio while data is sparse during the shutdown.

Solana

Spot

SOL trades near $235. Local support sits around $226 to $230. A move back through $240 to $245 helps the short-term trend.

What Matters This Week

The price is sensitive to the broad crypto beta and the tone of listed products. Thin official macro data increases the weight of intraday flows and positioning.

Sentiment Snapshot

Market sentiment remains bearish with a slight uptick in implied volatility across derivatives. Funding rates are neutral, but the breadth of altcoins is showing signs of weakening, indicating a risk-off sentiment among traders.

XRP

Spot

XRP is currently trading at around $2.99, following an early dip. $2.95 to $3.00 is the first band to watch. A clean push through $3.10 to $3.20 improves the picture.

Context

Moves continue to track crypto beta and leverage more than idiosyncratic headlines. Keep an eye on funding and ETF tone across the complex.

Sentiment snapshot

Macro signalling is compromised by the shutdown, which shifts attention to price action, liquidity, and ETF flows. Bitcoin's strength is supported by its new all-time high near $125k and by persistent inflows. Ether participation improved into the month-end. Altcoins are tracking beta.

Catalyst Calendar

• Government shutdown status updates and any guidance on resumption of official data releases
• Daily United States spot BTC and ETH ETF flow tables after the close
• Private sector indicators and earnings that can steer risk sentiment, while federal data is paused

One Week Scorecard

Calls vs Reality

• We said the week would be data-led and that ETF flows would fill the signalling gap. The shutdown reduced official data, and flows carried more weight. Price respected local supports and pushed higher, led by Bitcoin.
• We highlighted a mixed tone for the ETFs in September, with improvement possible into the month-end. Bitcoin and Ether flows improved into the turn, which aligned with price strength.

Closing Thought

Let the price come to you! While official data may be lagging, pay attention to the flows and levels; they'll speak volumes.