Crypto Outlook: JOLTS to Payrolls | Sep 29 – Oct 6

We kick off the week with a packed schedule of economic data releases from the United States. As we move past the holiday season, market liquidity is anticipated to return to typical levels, allowing for more stable trading conditions. Throughout the week, analysts and traders will be particularly focused on several key reports related to the labor market and economic activity, culminating in a critical report due on Friday. These data points are expected to provide valuable insights into the overall health of the economy and could influence market sentiment and trading strategies.

Market backdrop

The JOLTS report is scheduled for Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. New York time. The ISM Manufacturing report will be released on Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. Additionally, the ADP private payroll report is set for Wednesday at 8:15 a.m. Finally, the Nonfarm Payrolls report for September will be published on Friday at 8:30 a.m. These reports are expected to influence interest rates and the volatility of cryptocurrencies this week.

Bitcoin

Spot

Bitcoin is trading around $112,100 as European markets open. The first support level is between $111,000 and $112,000. An increase in strength from $114,000 to $115,000 would enhance momentum.

Flows and positioning

United States spot Bitcoin ETF flows were mixed last week. Notable outflows occurred on Thursday and Friday, following midweek inflows. Use the issuer tables after the close to confirm the daily tone.

Ethereum

Spot

Ether trades around $4,129. The 4,100 area is the first support. The 4,350 to 4,500 band is the area to reclaim to reset the short-term picture.

Flows and structure

United States spot Ether ETFs experienced significant outflows late last week, with large inflows on Thursday and Friday. Watch the Ether-to-Bitcoin ratio around data releases, as it often leads on macro days.

Solana

Spot

Solana trades near 209. Local support ranges from 205 to 200. A move back through 215 to 220 would help the short-term trend.

What matters this week

Solana remains sensitive to broad crypto beta and to any shifts in listed product flows across the complex. Ranges can widen around Wednesday and Friday.

XRP

Spot

XRP is currently around $ 2.89 after a soft opening. First support sits near 2.8 to 2.85. A return to 2.9 to 3 would brighten the picture again.

Context

Near-term moves continue to track crypto beta and leverage rather than idiosyncratic headlines. Keep an eye on funding around the midweek and Friday prints.

Sentiment snapshot

This week, macroeconomic factors will have a significant impact on pricing. The JOLTS report, ISM index, ADP figures, and payroll data are all scheduled to be released within a short timeframe, which can quickly influence the dollar and interest rates. These reports are crucial indicators of the health of the U.S. economy and can significantly affect market sentiment. Currently, ETF flow signals are mixed rather than consistent in one direction. Last week, Bitcoin funds experienced both inflows and outflows, while Ether funds faced significant outflows toward the end of the week. As summer liquidity decreases, market movements are expected to be more pronounced around these data releases.

Catalyst Calendar

One Week Scorecard

Price moves since last Monday morning levels

Calls versus reality

• As we predicted, the week was indeed data-driven, and the market respected local support levels, trading within ranges ahead of the new data. This engagement with the market dynamics is what keeps us on our toes and ready for any potential shifts.
• We highlighted a mixed tone in ETF flows. That remained true, with Bitcoin flows swinging day to day and Ether flows remaining negative late in the week.

Closing Thought

Let price come to you. This week’s labor and activity reports will shape sentiment and guide flows. Allow the data to speak first, and let the key levels do the work..