Crypto Outlook: Focus Turns to PCE | Sep 22–29

Last week, the Federal Reserve delivered the first cut of the year, and the market is still digesting it. This week, the focus shifts to the United States PCE on Friday and to durable goods on Thursday. Crypto opened softer in Europe. Bitcoin trades near $112,000. Ether is around 4,160. Solana trades near 220. XRP is around 2.81.

Market backdrop

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) release is due Friday and is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Durable goods arrive on Thursday. After the September rate cut, the path of policy is data-dependent. Markets will read PCE carefully for confirmation.

Bitcoin

Spot

BTC is trading near 112,300 after testing the 115,000 area during Asia. First support is from 111 to 112. A clean push back through one hundred fourteen to one hundred fifteen would improve momentum.

Flows and positioning

United States spot BTC ETF flows stayed choppy around the Fed week, with a mix of inflows and outflows by issuer. Use the daily tables after the close for confirmation of any move.

Ethereum

Spot

ETH trades near 4,160. The band from 4,100 to 4,200 is the first support. A strength back through 4,350 and 5,500 would reset the short-term picture.

Flows and structure

Spot ETH ETFs showed renewed interest last week, with multiple trackers noting positive prints led by the BlackRock vehicle. Watch the ETH versus BTC ratio around Thursday and Friday since it often leads on macro days.

Solana

Spot

SOL trades near two hundred twenty. Local support sits between 215 and 220. A move back above two hundred thirty would help the short-term trend.

What matters this week

Price remains sensitive to crypto beta and to ETF-related flow tone. Thin pockets intraday can amplify moves around the Thursday and Friday data.

XRP

Spot

XRP is around 2.81 after a soft open. The range from 2.75 to 2.80 is the first support. A return through 2.95 to 3 would brighten the picture again.

Context

Headlines and broader beta continue to dominate near-term moves. Keep an eye on leverage into late week.

Sentiment snapshot

Macro leads. The September rate cut set the tone, and now PCE and durable goods will tell the next part of the story. ETF flow signals remain mixed rather than one way, which makes the price reactive to data and headlines.

Catalyst calendar

• Thursday, United States durable goods orders at 08:30 New York time
• Friday, United States Personal Income and Outlays with PCE and core PCE
• Daily, the United States spot BTC and ETH ETF flow tables are updated after the close
• Ongoing central bank communication after last week’s Fed decision  

One-week scorecard

Price moves since last Monday morning levels

• BTC has dropped from about 116,150 on September 15 to about 112,300 now, marking a lower week.
• ETH has dropped from about 4,630 to about 4,160 this week.
• SOL, from about 240 to about 220 now, lower on the week.
• XRP has fallen from about 3.4 to 2.8, marking a lower low for the week.

Calls versus reality

• We said macro would dominate after the Fed and that levels would do most of the talking. The market respected local supports but failed to reclaim higher levels in the data week, which fits that view. 
• We said BTC needed a clean push through the mid-100s to accelerate. The reclaim failed, resulting in a lower price today.
• We flagged ETH support in the low four thousand band. Price is hovering around that zone into the PCE week.

Closing thought

Allow the price to come to you. The end-of-week data will establish the tone, and the levels will handle most of the work.