Crypto Outlook: Potential rate cut | September 15–22

Macro sets the tone into the Federal Reserve meeting this week. Markets expect a rate cut and will watch the dot plot and Powell’s guidance. Liquidity should improve after the holiday period and ranges can widen around the decision.

Market Backdrop

The FOMC meets on September 16 and 17. A quarter point cut is widely expected. The statement, projections and press conference will steer risk appetite for the week.

Bitcoin

Spot

BTC trades near $116,150 as Europe opens. First support sits around $115K then $113K to $114K. A clean push through $118K would improve momentum.

Flows and positioning

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been choppy through early September with large daily swings by issuer. Keep an eye on the post close prints this week for confirmation or contradiction of any move around the Fed.

Ethereum

Spot

ETH trades around $4,630. First support sits near $4,500 then $4,400. Strength back through $4,700 would reset the short term picture.

Flows and Structure

ETH spot ETF flows whipsawed last week with heavy outflows earlier in the month and strong net inflows on September 12. Watch ETH versus BTC around the Fed since the ratio often does the signaling first on macro days.

Solana

Spot

SOL trades near two hundred forty. Local support sits around two hundred thirty five then two hundred thirty. A move back through two hundred forty five to two hundred fifty would help the short term trend.

What matters this week

Price remains sensitive to broad crypto beta and to any listed product chatter. Thin pockets intraday can amplify moves around the Fed headlines.

XRP

Spot

XRP is around $3.04. $2.95 to #3.00 is the first area to watch for support. A return through $3.10 to $3.20 opens the path toward the summer highs if flows improve.

Regulatory context

With the court case resolved in August, attention is back on distribution and liquidity. Day to day price remains a beta play into the Fed.

Sentiment Snapshot

Macro will dominate price. Markets are positioned for a gentle Fed with a first cut and guidance that does not scare risk. If the Fed is less dovish than expected, a stronger dollar and softer beta would be the default reaction. ETF flows remain a swing factor rather than a one way impulse.

Catalyst Calendar

• Tuesday to Wednesday, Federal Reserve policy meeting with statement, projections and press conference
• Daily, United States spot BTC and ETH ETF flow tables after the close
• Ongoing central bank headlines from Japan and the United Kingdom can nudge the global rates tone

One Week Scorecard

Price moves since last Monday morning levels from our post on September 8

• BTC: $111,500 → $116,150 (higher)
• ETH: $4,300 → $4,630 (higher)
• SOL: $208 → $240 (higher)
• XRP: $2.90 → $3.04 (higher)

Calls vs. Reality

• We said macro would dominate and levels would do most of the talking. Price respected local supports and drifted higher into the event week which fits that view.
• We said BTC needed a clean push through the $115K handle to change character. Price is pressing higher but still needs a decisive reclaim to accelerate.
• We flagged ETH support in the low $4,000 band. Price is now comfortably above that area as we head into the Fed.

Closing Thought

Let price come to you. The Fed will set the tone and liquidity will expand around the event.