Crypto Outlook: CPI and Fed Minutes | Apr 6–13
Published 4/6/2026, 5:02:54 PM
Monday Crypto Outlook and Scorecard: April 6–13, 2026
BTC and ETH rebounded last week, but the move was not broad. SOL slipped, and XRP was flat. This week, the focus is on the April 8 Fed minutes and April 10 CPI after March payrolls smashed expectations and U.S. manufacturing extended its winning streak, fueled by rising input costs.
BTC
- Current price: $69,034.18
- Outlook/bias: Mildly constructive. BTC reclaimed the mid-$68,000 zone, but a break above $70,500-$71,000 is still critical to clear the decks for CPI.
- Support: $67,500, then $65,500.
- Resistance: $70,500, then $72,500.
- What to watch: The tone of spot BTC ETF net flows and the market's rate reaction to Fed minutes and CPI.
ETH
- Current price: $2,110.17
- Outlook/bias: Mildly constructive. ETH improved alongside BTC, but a recovery through $2,150 is needed for a stronger follow-through, especially as it remains flow-sensitive.
- Support: $2,050, then $2,000.
- Resistance: $2,150, then $2,250.
- What to watch: Spot ETH ETF flows and ETHBTC relative strength after CPI.
SOL
- Current price: $81.89
- Outlook/bias: Cautious. SOL missed last week’s rebound and remains under pressure unless it can quickly reclaim $84, aligning with overall crypto sentiment.
- Support: $80, then $76.
- Resistance: $84, then $88.
- What to watch: Altcoin breadth and whether SOL can hold $80 if BTC stalls.
XRP
- Current price: $1.3263
- Outlook/bias: Neutral. XRP was flat on the week, which leaves it range-bound and still waiting for a catalyst strong enough to pull it through resistance.
- Support: $1.30, then $1.25.
- Resistance: $1.36, then $1.42.
- What to watch: Whether majors can keep attracting flows if macro stays firm.
Sentiment snapshot
- Macro tone is firmer on labor, but still inflation-sensitive. March nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000, and unemployment fell to 4.3%, which pushed rate cut expectations further out.
- U.S. manufacturing is still expanding, but the quality of the expansion is mixed. Reuters reported ISM manufacturing at $52.7 in March, with prices paid at $78.3 and supplier deliveries at $58.9, both pointing to renewed cost pressure.
- ETF flows were mixed, not cleanly supportive. U.S. spot BTC ETFs took in $22.2m from March 30 to April 2, which provided some positive price support, while U.S. spot ETH ETFs lost $42.1m over the same period, pressuring ETH and dampening overall sentiment.
- Liquidity is still selective. BTC and ETH rebounded, but SOL finished lower, and XRP barely moved, so breadth remains narrow.
Catalyst calendar
| Date (Local) | Event | Detail | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6–10, 2026 | BTC & ETH ETF Daily Flows | Real-time institutional demand signal | High — confirms continuation or fade |
| Apr 7, 2026 | U.S. Consumer Credit (15:00 ET) | Demand and balance sheet tone | Low — secondary signal |
| Apr 8, 2026 | FOMC Minutes (14:00 ET) | Policy guidance from March meeting | High — rate expectations |
| Apr 9, 2026 | U.S. Personal Income & Outlays (08:30 ET) | Inflation and spending read | High — Fed-relevant |
| Apr 9, 2026 | U.S. Jobless Claims (08:30 ET) | Labor market update | Medium — trend confirmation |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Wholesale Trade (10:00 ET) | Inventory and demand signal | Medium — pre-CPI context |
| Apr 10, 2026 | U.S. CPI (08:30 ET) | Core inflation release | High — primary catalyst |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Michigan Sentiment (10:00 ET) | Inflation expectations | Medium — consumer signal |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Deribit Options Expiry (08:00 UTC) | Options positioning reset | Medium — volatility risk |
Scorecard (week over week)
Using March 30 daily closes vs today’s live:
| Asset | Last Week Close | Current | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $66,797.37 | $69,034.18 | +3.35% |
| ETH | $2,026.48 | $2,110.17 | +4.13% |
| SOL | $82.54 | $81.89 | -0.79% |
| XRP | $1.3242 | $1.3263 | +0.16% |
Calls vs reality
- Last week’s defensive stance was too cautious on BTC and ETH. Both closed higher on the week.
- The macro backdrop did not turn easier. Payrolls surprised to the upside, and manufacturing stayed in expansion with firmer price pressure, which kept the rate backdrop tight.
- Breadth stayed weak. SOL was still lower on the week, XRP was almost unchanged, and ETF flows were mixed rather than broadly supportive.
Closing line
Price has improved, but the move is not broad yet, so wait for confirmation at the key levels before adding risk.
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