Crypto Outlook: Payrolls Drive Risk | Mar 30 – Apr 6

Risk tone is soft again into payroll week as flows deteriorate and macro pressure stays elevated. Last week’s U.S. flash PMI showed business activity at an 11-month low, while an oil shock and ongoing geopolitical tensions sustained inflation fears. These adverse macro factors continue to impact risk assets, including crypto. This week’s main focus is the April 3 U.S. jobs report, with ISM Manufacturing on April 1 as the first key macro indicator.

BTC

• Current price: $66,010.93
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. BTC lost $70,000 again and now needs a fast recovery through $67,500 to stabilise the 7-day setup into payrolls.
• Support: $65,000, then $63,500.
• Resistance: $67,500, then $69,500.
• What to watch: Spot BTC ETF flow tone and the payrolls reaction.

ETH

• Current price: $1,984.64
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. ETH slipped back below $2,000 and is structurally weaker than BTC. A close above $2,050 is essential to shift short-term momentum.
• Support: $1,950, then $1,900.
• Resistance: $2,050, then $2,120.
• What to watch: Spot ETH ETF flows and ETHBTC relative performance after the macro data.

SOL

• Current price: $81.44
• Outlook/bias: Cautious. SOL was the weakest of the four again, which keeps it as the clearest high beta expression of crypto risk appetite.
• Support: $80, then $76.
• Resistance: $84, then $88.
• What to watch: Altcoin breadth and whether SOL can hold $80 if BTC stays heavy.

XRP

• Current price: $1.3278
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. XRP fell with the sector. A decisive close above $1.36 is needed to reduce downside pressure; otherwise, risk remains to the downside.
• Support: $1.30, then $1.25.
• Resistance: $1.36, then $1.42.
• What to watch: Whether majors can attract stable flows again after last week’s fade.

Sentiment snapshot

• Macro tone is fragile as growth and inflation indicators worsen. U.S. flash composite PMI fell to $51.4 in March, the lowest in 11 months, signaling weak business expansion. Input and output prices accelerated due to the energy shock, reflecting persistent inflation pressures that keep rate path uncertainty high for risk assets.
• ETF flows weakened materially. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $296.3m from March 23 to March 27, and U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $206.4m over the same period.
• Flow quality also deteriorated through the week. BTC and ETH funds were negative on four straight sessions from March 24 to March 27 after Monday’s only positive BTC print.
• Liquidity conditions remain thin. Reuters reported wider bid-ask spreads across major markets and lower market maker risk appetite as geopolitical volatility intensified.
• Labor data remains softer but not broken. Weekly jobless claims rose to 210,000 for the week ended March 21, highlighting some cooling in the labor market but not signaling a sharp breakdown. This keeps the April 3 payrolls release in sharp focus as a key macro catalyst for both traditional and crypto markets.

Catalyst calendar

Scorecard (week over week)

Using March 23 daily closes vs today’s live:

Calls vs reality

• Last week’s defensive stance was correct. All four assets closed lower on the week.
• Flows did not confirm. BTC ETF demand turned negative after Monday, and ETH ETFs stayed net negative throughout the week.
• SOL remained the highest beta part of the board and underperformed again, while weak macro and thinner liquidity kept pressure on the whole complex.

Closing line

The market remains pressured. Wait for confirmation at key levels before taking a risk.