Crypto Outlook: Fed Minutes Test Stabilization | Feb 16–23

Markets are stabilizing following a significant deleveraging phase. Both BTC and ETH remain below key recovery levels, while SOL is trading in a range and XRP continues to demonstrate relative strength. This week, attention centers on the February 18 Fed minutes and midweek U.S. economic data. ETF flow direction continues to serve as the clearest confirmation signal.

All prices below refer to Binance, which closes at 00:00 UTC on February 16, 2026.

BTC

• Current price: $68,832.58
• Outlook/bias: Neutral to defensive. BTC held the $68,000 zone, but reclaiming $70,000 to $72,000 is still needed to shift momentum back up on a 7-day view.
• Support: $68,000 then $65,000.
• Resistance: $70,000 then $72,000.
• What to watch: Daily U.S. spot BTC ETF net flow and reaction to Fed-minutes-driven rates volatility.

ETH

• Current price: $1,966.58
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. ETH remains the weaker major and needs a clean recovery through $2,050 to reduce further downside pressure over the week.
• Support: $1,920 then $1,850.
• Resistance: $2,050 then $2,140.
• What to watch: U.S. spot ETH ETF flow trend and whether ETH can hold $1,900 on any macro risk-off impulse.

SOL

• Current price: $86.16
• Outlook/bias: Neutral. SOL outperformed ETH this week by losing less, but still needs a break above 90 to confirm upside continuation in the next 7 days.
• Support: $84 then $80.
• Resistance: $90 then $95.
• What to watch: Alt breadth and options-expiry positioning into Friday.

XRP

• Current price: $1.4753
• Outlook/bias: Mildly constructive. XRP was the only one of the 4 to post a positive week, and holding above 1.43 keeps the short-term structure firm.
• Support: $1.43 then $1.38.
• Resistance: $1.52 then $1.60.
• What to watch: Whether relative strength persists if BTC remains below $70,000.

Sentiment snapshot

• U.S. spot ETF flows turned negative last week: BTC net was about -$360.0m, and ETH net was about -$161.2m from Feb 9 to Feb 13.
• The market is coming off a large liquidation phase, with Reuters reporting about $2.56bn in bitcoin liquidations during the prior stress window.
• Near-term liquidation pressure appears lower than the peak stress phase, with recent 24h liquidation totals far below that of the prior spike.
• Liquidity remains a watch item after BlockFills suspended deposits and withdrawals, even as trading services continued.
• Macro event density is moderate this week, with Fed minutes timing and midweek U.S. releases likely to set risk tone.

Catalyst Calendar

Catalyst data sources: U.S. federal indicator calendar, BLS schedule, Fed FOMC calendar rules, and Deribit expiry policy.

Scorecard (week-over-week)

Using February 9 daily closes vs today’s live:

Calls vs Reality

• Defensive posture fits BTC and ETH. Both closed lower week over week.
• SOL held relatively better and moved into a flatter range profile.
• XRP diverged and outperformed, showing selective rotation instead of uniform beta selling.

Closing Line

Let price come to you. Ultimately, ETF flows and macro timing will provide the confirmation.