Crypto Outlook: Labor Data After Deleveraging | Feb 2–9

Markets experienced a full risk-off reset last week, with significant selloffs and forced deleveraging across major and high-beta crypto assets. ETH, SOL, and XRP notably underperformed BTC, indicating a liquidity-driven unwind rather than asset-specific issues. This week, the macro focus shifts to U.S. labor data, particularly Nonfarm Payrolls, with market positioning now considerably reduced.

All prices below refer to Binance's close at 00:00 UTC on February 1, 2026.

BTC

• Current price: $76,968.21
• Outlook/bias: Defensive but stabilizing. BTC has retraced sharply and is testing long-term support levels. Further downside now depends more on macroeconomic developments than on positioning pressure.
• Support: $75,000 then $72,000.
• Resistance: $80,000 then $83,500.
• What to watch: U.S. payrolls reaction and whether BTC ETF flows stabilise after the drawdown.

ETH

• Current price: $2,270.15
• Outlook/bias: Weak. ETH saw the deepest drawdown, consistent with beta compression and leverage washout, and needs time to rebuild structure.
• Support: $2,200 then $2,000.
• Resistance: $2,450 then $2,650.
• What to watch: ETH/BTC relative strength and any improvement in sentiment around ETH ETF flows.

SOL

• Current price: $100.79
• Outlook/bias: Cautious. SOL has fully reflected the risk unwind and remains susceptible to further volatility if macroeconomic data is unfavorable.
• Support: $98 then $92.
• Resistance: $108 then $118.
• What to watch: Overall altcoin liquidity and whether SOL can maintain levels above 100.

XRP

• Current price: $1.5908
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. XRP significantly underperformed and remains sensitive to renewed risk aversion.
• Support: $1.55 then $1.45.
• Resistance: $1.70 then $1.85.
• What to watch: Overall market risk sentiment and any rotation back into large-cap assets following the labor data.

Sentiment Snapshot

• The positioning reset was abrupt, with significant liquidation pressure across futures and perpetuals.
• BTC outperformed the complex, consistent with a defensive rotation into relative quality.
• ETH, SOL, and XRP exhibited high beta behavior during the liquidity-driven selloff.
• ETF flow sentiment likely weakened during the week, reinforcing downward momentum.
• Volatility remains high, but most forced selling pressure appears to have subsided.

Catalyst Calendar, next 7 days

Scorecard, week over week

Using January 26 daily closes vs today’s live:

Calls vs reality

• We highlighted fragile liquidity and macro risk. The recent selloff confirmed this view, resulting in a broad-based market unwind.
• BTC acted defensively and outperformed on a relative basis, consistent with previous risk-off periods.
• ETH, SOL, and XRP demonstrated high beta exposure and experienced significant losses during the deleveraging phase.

Closing line

Let price come to you. Following forced moves, patience and confirmation matter more than conviction.