Crypto Outlook: BTC Breaks Down Ahead of FOMC | Jan 26 – Feb 2

Sharp risk-off week. BTC broke down and dragged the complex lower, with ETH and SOL hit hardest, and XRP also weak. Macro focus is the FOMC decision on January 28, with liquidity still fragile after the selloff and ETF flow tone soft.

All prices below refer to Binance, closing at 00:00 UTC on January 25, 2026, using your table.

BTC

• Current price: $86,670.36
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. BTC must urgently rebuild a base above $86,000 to avert deeper losses. Strong sensitivity to rates and ETF flows is critical in the fast-approaching FOMC window.
• Support: $86,000, then $84,000.
• Resistance: $90,000 then $92,600.
• What to watch: FOMC statement and press conference reaction, plus daily spot BTC ETF net flow tone.

ETH

• Current price: $2,816.89
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. ETH underperformed on the selloff, which is consistent with risk compression and flow sensitivity. Stabilisation needs 2,800 to hold and better flow into the month-end.
• Support: $2,800 then $2,650.
• Resistance: $3,000 then $3,190.
• What to watch: ETH spot ETF flow prints and whether ETH can reclaim $3,000 after the FOMC impulse.

SOL

• Current price: $118.85
• Outlook/bias: Cautious. SOL gave back the prior month’s gains quickly, which signals high beta fragility. A bounce is possible, but it needs BTC to stabilise first and liquidity to improve.
• Support: $115 then $110.
• Resistance: $125 then $133.
• What to watch: Breadth in alts and whether SOL can regain relative strength if BTC holds $86,000 to $88,000.

XRP

• Current price: $1.8356
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. XRP is still trading as beta with weak follow-through on rebounds. It needs $1.80 to hold to avoid a deeper retrace.
• Support: $1.80 then $1.70.
• Resistance: $1.95 then $2.00.
• What to watch: Post FOMC risk tone and any flow rotation back into majors.

Sentiment Snapshot

• The selloff was disorderly and escalated rapidly, with liquidations and suddenly thin books after BTC lost $88,000.
• U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw large weekly net outflows, reinforcing the weak tape into the month-end.
• Macro risk is front and center with the January 27 to 28 FOMC meeting and Powell press conference.
• Broader risk assets show stress with heavy global equity fund outflows, which is a headwind for crypto beta.
• Data uncertainty remains dangerously high after recent U.S. data disruptions, which could amplify market reaction to each print.

Catalyst Calendar (next 7 days)

Scorecard, week over week

Using January 19 daily closes vs today’s live:

Calls vs Reality

• We anticipated that macro and flows would urgently dominate in the late January Fed window. The breakdown aligned with risk stress and heavy ETF outflows.
• ETH and SOL underperformed BTC, consistent with beta compression in a fast risk-off move.
• XRP stayed weak and did not provide diversification, consistent with selective risk reduction across the complex.

Closing Line

Let price come to you. This week, FOMC and flows will decisively drive market action.