Crypto Outlook: CPI Watch: Flow and Inflation Guide Crypto | Jan 12–19

Risk tone cooled last week after a strong start to the year. BTC and ETH fell about 3%, with XRP hit harder. Market focus is on inflation, led by the U.S. CPI on January 13. ETF flow sentiment remains fragile after recent spot BTC ETF outflows.

All prices below refer to Binance's close at 00:00 UTC on January 11, 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Price: $91,013.65
• Outlook/bias: Neutral to slightly defensive. BTC shows muted momentum following the first week and requires either clearer ETF inflows or a macro tailwind to reassert upside.
• Support: $90,000 then $88,000.
• Resistance: $93,500 then $96,000.
• What to watch: U.S. CPI reaction and daily spot BTC ETF net flows after the U.S. close.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Price: $3,123.45
• Outlook/bias: Neutral to slightly defensive. ETH mirrors BTC but retains firmer structure above $3,000. If risk tone stabilizes, ETH can hold ground. CPI surprises, especially higher prints, may weigh quickly due to rate sensitivity.
• Support: $3,000 then $2,850.
• Resistance: $3,250 then $3,400.
• What to watch: ETH BTC relative strength and whether flows rotate back into ETH products after recent BTC ETF weakness.

Solana (SOL)

• Price: $139.70
• Outlook/bias: Mildly constructive but volatile. SOL was the only one of the four to finish up last week, which fits a selective risk appetite rather than full risk off. It still trades as high beta, so the CPI impulse can dominate the week.
• Support: $136 then $130.
• Resistance: $145 then $155.
• What to watch: Alt liquidity and whether SOL can hold relative strength if BTC remains heavy.

XRP

• Price: $2.0745
• Outlook/bias: Defensive. XRP gave back a large part of its early January rally as liquidity thinned and beta compressed. A stable base will need either improved risk tone or a fresh catalyst, or else rallies could be sold.
• Support: $2.00 then $1.90.
• Resistance: $2.20 then $2.35.
• What to watch: Whether XRP stabilises above $2.00 into CPI and whether flows improve across majors.

Sentiment snapshot

• Macro focus is on inflation; U.S. CPI on January 13 and other prints will guide rates and risk appetite.
• Spot BTC ETFs showed a run of large net outflows in early January, which matches last week’s softer tape.
• Liquidity is better than over the holidays but remains uneven, so CPI moves can overshoot.
• Leverage looks lower than peak conditions, but thin order books in alts still make sharp intraday swings likely.

Catalyst calendar, next 7 days

Scorecard, week over week

Using January 5 daily closes vs today’s live:

Calls vs reality

• We expected flows to outweigh narratives. BTC and ETH weakened as spot BTC ETF flows remained soft in early January.
• SOL held up better than the complex, consistent with selective risk appetite rather than a full unwind.
• XRP behaved as a high beta on the downside, giving back a large part of the early January move.

Closing line

Let price come to you. Wait for CPI and flow signals to confirm direction before making any moves this week.