Crypto Outlook: Risk-On Start to 2026 | Jan 5–12

Risk tone improved into the year-end and carried into the first trading days of 2026. A strong rebound across majors and high-beta alts reflects renewed risk appetite and positive flow dynamics, while macro risk factors, though present, have temporarily been overshadowed. This week's focus shifts to whether flows can sustain the move as liquidity normalises after the holidays.

All prices below refer to Binance's close at 00:00 UTC on January 4, 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Price: $91,529.73
• Outlook / bias: Constructive. BTC is showing a strong rebound from late-December lows, with improved sentiment and flow. Sustained gains are likely to depend more on institutional demand than on momentum, in line with the trend across major assets.
• Support: $88,000 then $86,000
• Resistance: $93,500 then $96,000
• What to watch: Daily BTC ETF net flows and whether BTC can hold above the prior breakdown zone near 90,000.

Ethereum (ETH)

• Price: $3,144.70
• Outlook / bias: Constructive. ETH is experiencing improving relative strength and outperformance versus BTC, in line with broader rotating interest to higher beta large caps over defensive assets.
• Support: $3,000 then $2,850
• Resistance: $3,300 then $3,450
• What to watch: ETH BTC behaviour and confirmation from ETH-focused ETF and ETP flow data.

Solana (SOL)

• Price: $134.12
• Outlook / bias: Constructive with volatility. SOL has participated in the risk rebound and continues to represent a high beta expression, though sharp pullbacks could still occur, similar to trends across major assets.
• Support: $128 then $122
• Resistance: $145 then $155
• What to watch: Continuation of altcoin inflows and whether SOL maintains leadership versus other large-cap alts.

XRP

• Price: $2.0909
• Outlook / bias: Strong upside momentum. XRP led performance last week, reflecting high beta behavior as sentiment improved, but gains remain vulnerable if risk appetite slows, consistent with other large-cap assets.
• Support: $2.00 then $1.90
• Resistance: $2.20 then $2.35
• What to watch: Flow follow-through and any institutional or regulatory headlines that could extend or cap the move.

Sentiment snapshot

• Risk appetite improved sharply into year-end, with broad participation across BTC, ETH, and high beta alts.
• Flow dynamics, rather than macroeconomic influences, dominated price action as investors focused on capital allocations during the holiday period.
• Leverage appears cleaner after the late-December reset, allowing spot demand to move prices more effectively.
• Liquidity is improving versus the holiday week, but remains thinner than normal, amplifying directional moves.
• Market tone is optimistic but not euphoric, leaving room for continuation if flows persist.

Catalyst calendar (next 7 days)

One-week scorecard

Using Dec 29 daily closes vs today’s live:

Calls vs Reality

• We framed late December as flow-driven, with upside dependent on sentiment improvement, while macro factors had limited influence on direction. The broad rally across all assets confirms that flows, rather than macro developments, dominated price action during this period.
• BTC stabilised first and delivered solid gains, but underperformed higher beta assets as risk appetite expanded.
• SOL and XRP behaved as high beta expressions of renewed risk, significantly outperforming BTC and ETH.

Closing Thought

Let price come to you. In early January, prioritize tracking actual fund flows over market narratives, as trading activity and liquidity normalize. Real buying and selling will drive the market, so focus on concrete fund movements rather than headlines.