Crypto Outlook: Fed Week, ETF Flow Watch | Oct 27 – Nov 3
The week kicks off with the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Positioning is leaner after the October 11 washout. Bitcoin hovers near $115,479, Ethereum at $4,190, Solana at $201.90, and XRP at $2.63.
Market backdrop
FOMC meets October 28-29, and a rate cut is widely anticipated. Official calendars back the date and the October 29 press conference. Crypto traders will watch late-week data—delayed releases may move the needle. Last week, ETF flows swung: big outflows on October 17, then inflows, before fading at week's end.
Bitcoin
Spot
BTC trades around $115,479 after testing $116,174 intraday. First support sits near $112,000 to $113,000. A clean hold above $115,000 and pushing through $118,000 improves momentum.
Flows and positioning
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF prints flipped between outflows and inflows last week. Check issuer tables after the close for confirmation around any Fed-driven moves.
Ethereum
Spot
ETH trades near $4,190 with an intraday range of $3,951 to $4,250. First support sits around $4,050 to $4,100, then $3,900. A move back through $4,350 to $4,500 would reset the short-term picture.
Structure
Keep an eye on ETH versus BTC during the Fed window. When macro volatility rises, this ratio often leads. ETF tone for ETH remains choppy across issuers.
Solana
Spot SOL hovers at $201.90. Local support sits around $195 to $198. A move back through $205 to $210 would help the short-term trend.
What matters this week
SOL remains sensitive to broad crypto beta and to listed product tone. Headline risk around the Fed can widen intraday ranges.
XRP
Spot
XRP is around $2.63 with an intraday range of $2.60 to $2.67. First support sits near $2.55 to $2.60. A return of $2.75 to $2.85 would brighten the picture again.
Context
Moves continue to track complex beta and shifting ETF sentiment. Macro takes the wheel for the first half of the week.
Sentiment snapshot
Macro leads. The FOMC is the center of gravity on Tuesday and Wednesday, with a press conference on Wednesday. ETF flow signals were mixed rather than one-way last week, which kept rallies measured. Post-crash mechanics are fading from price, but liquidity is still selective.
Catalyst Calendar
| Date (Local) | Event | Detail | Potential Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 (Tue–Wed) | Federal Reserve Meeting | Statement and press conference scheduled for Oct 29 | High – Macro, rates, crypto |
| Daily | BTC & ETH ETF Flow Reports | Updated after U.S. market close | Moderate – Sentiment driver |
| Rolling | Catch-up U.S. Data & Global PMIs | Any delayed U.S. data or flash PMIs impacting USD and risk | Medium – Dollar and risk |
One-week Scorecard
Price moves since last Monday morning, levels from our post on October 20
| Asset | Last Week Close | Current | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $111,200 | $115,479 | Higher |
| ETH | $4,070 | $4,190 | Slightly Higher |
| SOL | $194 | $201.90 | Higher |
| XRP | $2.47 | $2.63 | Higher |
Calls versus reality
- We said macro would dominate with flows doing the confirming. The market respected levels while waiting for the Fed, and ETF prints stayed choppy.
- We noted that ETH versus BTC would matter in macro. The ratio firmed slightly as ETH held the low $4,000area.
- We stressed that levels would do most of the talking. Price traded defined bands while calendars reset.
Closing thought
Let price come to you. The Fed will set the tone, and flows will do the confirming.
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