Crypto Outlook: CPI & PMIs Take the Lead | Oct 20–27

Asia opens the week firmer on better China data and a softer dollar. Crypto stabilized after the October 11 flush and Binance's October 14 oracle change. Focus now shifts to delayed U.S. inflation prints and flash PMIs later this week. 

Market backdrop

U.S. economic releases were delayed by the shutdown. September CPI is now due Friday, alongside S&P Global flash PMIs. ETF flows last week leaned negative and limited bounces. We will watch if flows improve by week’s end.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Spot

BTC trades near $111,200 in Europe. First supports are $110,000–$108,000. A move above $114,000–$115,000 would boost momentum.

Flows and positioning

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF prints were net out several sessions last week. Day-to-day issuer dispersion stayed wide, keeping signals noisy.

Ethereum (ETH)

Spot

ETH trades around $4,070. The $4,000–$4,100 band is first support. Strength above $4,350–$4,500 would reset the short-term picture.

Structure

Oracle-based collateral pricing went live on Binance on October 14, reducing the chance of a synthetic collateral spiral seen on the 11th. We’ll still watch ETH versus BTC around Friday’s macro prints.

Solana (SOL)

Spot

SOL trades near $194. Local support is around $190–$185. A move above $200–$205 would help the short-term trend.

What matters this week

SOL remains sensitive to broad crypto beta and ETF flows. Flash PMIs and delayed CPI can shift the dollar and risk appetite.

XRP

Spot

XRP is around $2.47 after a steady Asian session. $2.40–$2.50 is the first band to watch. A return to $2.65–$2.75 would brighten the picture.

Context

XRP continues to trade as beta to the complex while regulatory headlines are quiet. ETF flow and macro will steer ranges this week.

Sentiment snapshot

Macro signals improve as delayed data finally prints. ETF flows were negative several days last week, keeping rallies contained. Post-mortems on the October 11 crash continue, and Binance confirmed the oracle-based fix and user compensation. The market feels cleaner, but participation is still selective.

Catalyst Calendar

One Week Scorecard

Calls versus reality:

• We said post-crash stabilization would leave the market cleaner but flow-dependent. Negative ETF prints last week capped bounces and kept ranges choppy.
• We said ETH versus BTC would matter in macro; ETH underperformed and sits near support ahead of the data.
• We said levels would do most of the talking. Price traded levels while macro calendars reset after the shutdown delays.

Closing thought

Let price come to you. Await late-week data for direction and use flows as confirmation before making moves.